What is artificial intelligence (AI)?
How does it compare to natural intelligence in humans? Is it really a science?
Disclaimer: we will not talk about AI 🤷♂️
But 1969 Herbert Simon’s book The Sciences of the Artificial provided many answers.
He explored the commonalities that transcend artificial systems including economic systems, business firms, artificial intelligence, sophisticated engineering designs, and social plans.
And guess what? 💥
Simon talked about bottlenecks and the importance of finding the limiting resource.
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Prepare yourself to discover:
the story of Herbert Simon’s bottleneck example.
The usual pitfalls when trying to identify bottlenecks.
How to identify bottlenecks - some tips.
Takeaways.
Herbert Simon’s anecdote - finding the limiting resource 📠
In his book “The Sciences of the Artificial” (1969), Herbert Simon shares an example of bottleneck identification.
“if a solution is found, even a partial one, it will at least tend to alleviate the real problem instead of aggravating it.”
The example:
In the 60s, the US State Department had to cope with overloaded teletypes and incoming communication lines.
The capacity was increased thanks to line printers.
But the new bottleneck was the capacity of officers to analyze the information.
The real bottleneck turned out to be management attention.
The real question:
How to filter information and provide decision-makers with relevant information instead of just increasing the flow of data.
Here the complete extract from his book:
“A second example illustrates the importance, in choosing a representation for a design problem, of identifying correctly the limiting resource or resources. A few years ago, the State Department was troubled by the congestion that affected its incoming communication lines whenever there was a crisis abroad. The teletypes, unable to output messages as rapidly as they were received, would fall many hours behind. Important messages to Washington were seriously delayed in transmission. Since printing capacity was identified as the limiting factor, it was proposed to remedy the situation by substituting line printers for the teletypes, thereby increasing output by several orders of magnitude. No one asked about the next link in the chain: the capacity of officers at the country desks to process the messages that would come off the line printers. A deeper analysis would have shown that the real bottleneck in the process was the time and attention of the human decision makers who had to use the incoming information. Identification of the bottleneck would have generated in turn a more sophisticated design problem: How can incoming messages during a crisis be filtered in such a way that important information will have priority and will come to the attention of the decision makers, while unimportant information will be shunted aside until the crisis is past? Stated in this way, the design problem is not an easy one, but if a solution is found, even a partial one, it will at least tend to alleviate the real problem instead of aggravating it.”
This paragraph strongly resonates with Goldratt’s book “The Haystack Syndrome”.
2 comments about elevating management attention 🔬
The lean solution to accelerate decision making: Autonomous teams in manufacturing plants with appropriate delegation of authority.
The military solution: share information two levels up and two levels down, so that attrition of mid-level commanders can be quickly bypassed (e.g. field promotions).
Decoding the Myths about Bottlenecks ⏳
Our insights are derived from a detailed analysis of common patterns and issues observed in various industries.
Operational problems/bottlenecks
Often, management teams misinterpret recurring operational problems as capacity constraints.
A persistent issue or a 'headache' in daily operations might seem like a constraint, but it's crucial to differentiate between a general problem and a true capacity constraint.
Identifying the Structural Bottleneck
A common fallacy is the belief in shifting bottlenecks within a process.
However, these are typically self-created fluctuations caused by management practices, leading to inconsistent workloads.
The real challenge lies in uncovering the structural bottleneck, which is often masked by fluctuations.
Functional layouts encourage big batches and this kind of fluctuation. So, if you have a functional layout, watch out!
Production bottlenecks can shift over time because of product mix changes, especially in job shops, but still, there are usually just a few resources that can be considered as real bottlenecks.
🔎The Underestimated Impact of Quality Control
An eye-opening revelation from our research shows that in many cases, especially in industries like aerospace, food, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, the real bottleneck is in quality control or inspection.
This area, often undervalued, has become a critical bottleneck due to increased demand for quality in the modern business environment.
They also have to sign papers and may be legally responsible.
Asking for productivity in these operations is not perceived well either.
The Assembly Line Confusion: distinguishing Cause and Effect
A frequent misdiagnosis occurs in assembly operations, where large queues are mistaken for bottlenecks.
However, these are often symptoms of other issues, such as component shortages or validation delays.
Not a reflection of the assembly's capacity.
Capacity Constraints in Project Management: The Challenge of Data Accuracy in Projects
In project management, identifying capacity constraints is complicated by the lack of precise data. 📊
Projects often involve guesswork in durations and workloads, leading to misconceptions about resource allocation and bottlenecks.
+ Work is invisible.
🎯 Understanding Where Bottlenecks Typically Occur
Contrary to common belief, bottlenecks are rarely found at the start or end of a process.
They tend to occur in the middle stages, as starting operations can't be bottlenecks without affecting the subsequent workflow, and ending stages are often accelerated to meet deadlines.
Tips for Identifying Bottlenecks
Observation Over Data Analysis:
Direct observation of the workflow can be more revealing than data analysis.
Spending time on the shop floor or closely monitoring project progress can uncover bottlenecks that might not be apparent in reports or data sets.
Visual management of the workflows helps a lot.
Understanding Workflow Patterns and trends:
Don’t talk about snapshots, talk about trends.
Recognize patterns in workflow and resource allocation.
Bottlenecks often manifest as consistent delays or queues in specific areas.
Identifying these patterns can help pinpoint where the real constraints lie.
Tips: Monitoring the variation of the output of the production steps with 1-3 months moving-averages. 📉📈📉📈
Critical Chain Project Management:
In project environments, employing critical chain project management can aid in identifying bottlenecks.
This method focuses on the project's critical path and resources, making it easier to spot where delays are likely to occur.
We will talk about it in other articles. Stay tuned!
Routings and machines
You can extract the routings and work centers from your ERP and check if some work centers have more operations than others.
You could draw a machine-part matrix.
This can help understand where the flow of work may get stuck (M3).
Scheduling tool and MES
If you have such software, you can get insights on where your bottlenecks are. But beware! We have seen many companies where the data was not up-to-date and not maintained well enough to trust the system.
Visual Management Tools
Implement visual management tools like Kanban boards or process maps.
These tools can make it easier to visualize work in progress and identify stages where work is piling up.
Balancing Technology with Human Insight
While technology and data are invaluable, they should be balanced with human insight.
Sometimes, data can mask underlying issues, so it's essential to maintain a human perspective on process flows and bottlenecks.
Ask the teams about where the bottleneck can be. Use visual management. Watch out!
Encouraging Open Communication
Foster an environment where team members can openly discuss challenges and delays.
Often, those working closest to the process can provide valuable insights into where and why bottlenecks are occurring.
Talk about bottlenecks. Create routines to talk about work.
Regular Review and Adaptation:
Make bottleneck identification a regular part of your operational review.
Continuously adapt and refine your processes in response to identified bottlenecks to maintain optimal flow and efficiency.
Takeaways & quick wins
Regular Floor Walks: Schedule routine walkthroughs in operational areas to observe recurring delays and areas of congestion to pinpoint bottlenecks.
Combine Data with Observations: Encourage discussions that value both data analytics and personal insights from team members.
Implement Visual Tools: Use tools like Kanban boards for a clear view of workflows and to identify bottlenecks easily.
Foster Open Communication: Create an environment where employees can comfortably share their observations and concerns.
Continual Process Review: Establish a regular review cycle to adapt and refine processes based on bottleneck analysis.
You work in project environments: apply Critical Chain Management: Incorporate critical chain methods in project management to highlight potential bottlenecks.
By the way
We share more information on how to apply TOC + Lean ideas and case studies in the Theory of Constraints training course by Philip Marris.
For one week only and the readers only, 30% off:
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Etienne Lecerf
Marris Consulting ⏳🔗📈